Technical view ahead of the US inflation release (June 10, 2022)
Charts: trading view
(Italics: previous analysis)
EUR/USD technical analysis:
Primary trend: bearish since early 2021
Hopes of rebounding from support at $1.0638 are quickly receding on the daily time frame, leaving rising support turned resistance unchallenged from the $1.0340 low. In line with the main downtrend, sellers are reacting to the weekly resistance of Quasimodo support at $1.0778, eyeing perhaps as far south as 2n/a January low at $1.0340 (2017).
The H4 resistance at $1.0758, coupled with the H1 resistance at $1.0762 (with a 100% Fibonacci projection at $1.0766 and a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.0773), did well. served as resistance on Thursday. With H1 and H4 now on the doorstep of support turned by Quasimodo resistance at $1.0631 and demand turned by supply at $1.0655-1.0632, respectively, a breakout in this zone not only points the technical spotlight on $1.06, but threatens a break from the current daily. Support.
As a result, it remains a seller’s market at the moment, with short-term hands likely to target $1.06 on the back of a breakout of $1.0631.
AUD/USD technical analysis:
Primary Trend: Bearish since early 2021 (decisive downside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2011)
In light of the longer-term trend and the three-week pullback on the weekly timeframe, this week is about to conclude as a bearish engulfing candlestick formation on the weekly timeframe. The weekly support structure remains between $0.6632 and $0.6764, comprising of a 100% Fibonacci projection, price support and a 50% retracement. On the daily timeframe, sellers responded to the low of the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7253. Quasimodo support from $0.6901 is now calling attention on the daily scale.
The lower time frames picture displays an H4 head and shoulders pattern (left shoulder: $0.7230; head: $0.7283; right shoulder: $0.7247), which as you can see has had its neckline punctured on Thursday (pulled from low $0.7141). The profit target of the model sits at $0.7029. From the H1 period, resistance has been tested for the past few hours at $0.7126 with price poised to greet $0.71. Interestingly, below, Quasimodo support at $0.7056 is visible just north of the H4 pattern profit target.
In keeping with the above analysis, the sellers are clearly at the wheel for now, threatening to potentially gobble up $0.71 on the H1 scale and approach the H1 support of $0.7056 and the profit target of the H4 model at $0.7029.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis:
Main trend: bullish since early 2021 (upward bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2012)
USD/JPY remains an unstoppable force, up 2.5% since the start of the week and poised to cross swords with ¥135.16: 28e January high (2002) on the weekly chart. And according to the technical landscape for the daily timeframe, after dethroning Quasimodo resistance at ¥133.45 and retesting the level as support on Thursday, limited resistance is visible down to ¥135.16. The fact that the daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought space is unlikely to deter buyers at this stage.
With the big picture showing the possibility of connecting at ¥135.16, any selling is likely to be met with a dominant bearish buy. Therefore, the H1 price reclaiming ¥134+ status in recent trading could be seen as a bullish sign to target ¥135.
GBP/USD technical analysis:
Main trend: bearish since February 2021 (decisive bearish bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2008)
It’s been a rather monotonous week so far. Since the beginning of the week, the pound sterling is higher by a meager 0.2% compared to its American counterpart.
As seen in the daily timeframe, price action is now within range of Trendline resistance (etched from the $1.3639 high), sheltered south of daily support at Quasimodo turned resistance from $1.2762 which is also placed near the weekly resistance at $1.2719. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart continues to test the lower side of its 50.00 centerline, echoing resistance and supporting a bearish landscape at this time.
With the buyers unable to gain enough momentum at the H4 support at $1.2475 to retest the H4 resistance between $1.2650 and $1.2614, the pendulum is currently swinging in favor of the sellers. This, in conjunction with the higher timeframes showing a bearish picture, could send H1 to $1.25 and reopen the risk of a move back to $1.24.
Ultimately, a decisive close below $1.25 may cause sellers to step in and attempt to target $1.24.
BTC/USD technical analysis:
Primary trend: bearish since November 2021
In recent days, BTC/USD has broken the lower edge of a daily pennant pattern, pulled from $30,091 and $31,418. This helps confirm the main downtrend and places a bold question mark over daily support at $28,849.
In view of a somewhat lackluster week, those who read Thursday’s technical briefing may recall the following:
The [pennant] is generally seen as a continuation formation, so a dominant break to the downside could spell the end for $28,849. As pointed out in recent writing, reversing this level would be disturbing for many bulls at this point, as the next obvious area of support is around $20,000. Adding to the bearish picture, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rejects the lower side of the 50.00 midline (negative momentum).
The support on the first half period at $29,358 proved to be an effective floor, resisting several attempts on the downside. However, the recovery of the level is visibly thinning: each time the price tests the level, the crypto fails to form a meaningful top. This sets the stage for a bearish scene and a potential move for the H1 support at $28,694, laid out just below the daily support level highlighted above.
Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD):
Early primary trend: bearish since March 2022
The technical view of the daily calendar has remained virtually unchanged since mid-May:
Price is seen engaging with the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) of a harmonic Gartley pattern on the daily time frame between $1,815 and $1,843, aided by the 200-day simple moving average at $1,842. If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above the 50.00 midline (positive momentum), this would add weight to further buying (average gains exceeding average losses). Upside price targets are $1,896 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement derived from the AD legs of the current harmonic pattern) and a resistance zone of $1,959-1,974.
Across the H1 timeframe page, the chart structure offers resistance at $1,856, a level working closely with Quasimodo resistance at $1,855 and support from $1,836. The Fibonacci support between $1,828 and $1,831 is also technically relevant.
Where we go from here on gold is hard to estimate. On the one hand, we have an early primary downtrend, but on the other hand, the daily price continues to attempt to find a hold on the PRZ of the Gartley Harmonic Pattern. Thus, traders will likely continue to watch the noted H1 levels; Interestingly, the aforementioned H1 support at $1,836 merges closely with the 200-day simple moving average.
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