Forex Signals Brief July 4: Central bankers on the agenda this week
Market review last week
Last week was fairly quiet when it came to economic data, with only Eurozone inflation figures catching the eye of financial markets, which showed a further increase for June to 8.5%. Although this hasn’t helped the Euro much, although it is another good reason for the ECB (European Central Bank) to offer a big rate hike at this month’s meeting. Consequently, there were not many surprises in market sentiment and volatility was not as high as in previous weeks.
OPEC also drew attention last week by doing nothing as the OPEC meeting did not produce much. Crude oil attempted to rally this week after the crash of the previous one, but failed. Risky assets such as equities and commodities remained bearish as the economic slowdown heralded a global recession to come this year.
The data agenda today
This week starts on Monday with CPI (consumer price index) inflation out of Switzerland, which is expected to show a slowdown in May. This is a good thing for the SNB (Swiss National Bank) which has already started to raise its rates. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cash rate decision will factor in on Tuesday, which is expected to result in another 50 basis point rate hike, after the last of the previous meeting. We have speeches from several central bankers during the week, but the minutes from the latest ECB and FED meetings are the most important as they will give an indication of where these banks are headed.
Last week, we opened many trading signals in all markets, despite the lower volatility compared to previous weeks. Although there were sudden twists and turns, we did not end the week on a positive note, but we made a lot of profits during the week.
GOLD – Sell XAU/USD
We opened several sell signals on gold last week as this commodity has been bearish since reversing above $2000 in March this year and we tried to sell higher retracements students. We had more winning signals, but got caught several times as price moved higher back to the moving averages.
Gold – 240 minute chart
USD/JPY – Buy signal
USD/JPY has been bullish for a long time and since March the uptrend has accelerated as the Bank of Japan has no plans to raise interest rates anytime soon. The moving averages continue to support this pair and we continue to hold a bullish bias. Last week we opened many signals, hitting the TP target on many but losing sone as well as the downside was deeper, although the 100 SMA (green) held support.
EUR/USD – 60 minute chart
Cryptocurrencies started to reverse again last week, after consolidating the previous week, which sent Bitcoin below $20,000 again, where it is. Earlier this week, sellers returned after comments from the SEC Chairman made some warning comments about this market, but the decline has been slow. yesterday we saw it pick up speed and BTC fell below $20,000.
Bitcoin finds everything as resistance
Bitcion turned bearish again, breaking below all support and resistance levels. The main support/resistance zone around $20,000 still holds, but the level itself has lost its significance and the price has moved below and above it several times. The moving averages continue to provide resistance, with the smallest one having done so last week, showing strong downside pressure.
BTC/USD – 240 minute chart
ADA/USD Signal – Formation of the support zone at $0.43-0.45
Cardano continues to remain bearish since last September’s reversal, with highs lowering. Although a support zone formed from $0.43 to $0.45, it held. The moving averages continue to provide resistance at the top and the range is getting really tight, so we are expecting a breakout and aiming higher.
ADA/USD daily chart