Since the triangle pattern is approaching its confluence zone, it is likely to have a breakout soon.

Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and take-profit at 48,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 43,000.
• Lead time: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell stop at 44,000 and a take profit at 42,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 46,000.

The BTC/USD pair has remained in a tight range for the past few days as the recent rally has taken a break. The pair is trading at 45,920, around 4.8% below last week’s high. It is significantly above its lowest point this year.

Increase in Bitcoin activity

Bitcoin price is in a tight range even though supply issues remain. Data compiled by Glassnode shows that the number of Bitcoins mined has passed the 19 million mark. This means that only about 2 million coins have yet to be mined, which means that the difficulty of mining will continue to increase in the years to come.

At the same time, many large investors are buying Bitcoin as a form of financial collateral. The most recent big buyer was the Luna Foundation Guard, which announced that it would acquire Bitcoin worth $10 billion. The purpose of its purchase is to use the coins as a safety net for the UST algorithmic stablecoin.

During the same period, MicroStrategy announced that it was spending over $200 million to increase its Bitcoin holdings. At the current price, the value of all the Bitcoins it owns is greater than the company’s total market capitalization. More importantly, the total market capitalization of Wrapped Bitcoin has increased over the past few months.

Yet overall, most exchanges are seeing sharp outflows, with Bitcoin balances at most exchanges falling to multi-year lows. But, according to Glassnode, many whales continued to hoard the coin.

The BTC/USD pair also faltered as investors react to the lingering risks of high interest rates and quantitative tightening. In a statement on Tuesday, Lael Brainard became the first official to warn that the bank will soon begin quantitative tightening.

BTC/USD forecast

The 4H chart reveals that the pair has been in consolidation mode recently. It is trading at 45,920, where it has been for the past few days. The pair also formed a symmetrical triangular pattern which is depicted in green. The Average True Range (ATR) fell, signaling that volatility has faded.

So, given that the triangle pattern is approaching its confluence zone, it is likely to have a breakout soon. Although the direction of this breakout is unknown, it is possible that it is in the upper part.